How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict in the Philippines? Climate security pathway analysis

Abstract

This factsheet gives answers on how climate exacerbates root causes of conflict in the Phillipines, using a pathway analysis. Two main pathways are identified:

1. Resource Availability and Access: Climate change and variability impact water and land systems, contributing to an increase in competition over the access and distribution of natural resources. In the Philippines, disputes over the access and use of limited land and water resources can interplay and contribute to creating or exacerbating already existing conflict dynamics and encouraging civilians to participate in illegal activities.

2. Livelihood and Food Insecurity: Climate variability and extremes, especially rapid-onset events, amplify socioeconomic vulnerabilities, leading to heightened livelihood and food insecurity. This, in turn, elevates the risk of recruitment into non-state armed groups and involvement in illegal activities. The ramifications of livelihood and food insecurity are anticipated to spur migration towards urban centres, either within the country or abroad, further exacerbating tensions in the receiving communities.